A highlight of the annual Serie A calendar sees the two Milanese giants face off at the San Siro this weekend. AC Milan are the home team on Sunday evening, with Inter Milan’s players set to prepare for the match in the away dressing room. Will that have any bearing on the best Milan derby bets this weekend?
Possibly. None of the last seven Milan derbies have seen an away win, with the hosts triumphing on four occasions. However, Inter have had more success as the away team in this fixture. They account for four of the last five away wins, although the most recent of those was back in 2012.
Things could hardly be tighter coming into this game. Third-placed Milan are a single point ahead of Inter, who are three ahead of Roma in fifth. With the capital club playing struggling SPAL on Saturday, there’s a decent chance Inter could be out of the Champions League places if they lose the derby.
Milan are in excellent form at the moment, so the home win’s looking pretty tempting at 31/20. The Rossoneri have won their last five Serie A matches, and are unbeaten in their last 10 in all competitions. They may have gone down to Inter 1-0 in October, but that game was settled by a 92nd-minute winner from Mauro Icardi.
Since then, Icardi has been going through another tumultuous spell with the Nerazzurri. Stripped of the captaincy once again, there have been strong rumours he wants out of the club, although his wife and agent has denied those reports. Either way, the talismanic striker is out of this game injured, although the veracity of his fitness troubles has even been questioned.
Inter have been in okay form of late, only losing one of their last eight matches in all competitions, ahead of their Europa League tie at home to Eintracht Frankfurt on Thursday. However, Luciano Spalletti’s side have failed to win any of their last three away games, losing 2-1 at Cagliari on their last match on the road in Serie A.
That, and the fact Milan have the whole week to prepare for this game, with Inter only getting two after their midweek exertions, helps point this fixture towards a home win. The last three Milan derbies have only seen two goals in total, coming in 1-0 home victories for either side.
Milan are 7/1 to win this game by the same scoreline, or 4/1 if you want to hedge your bets by backing them to either win 1-0 or 2-0. Gennaro Gattuso’s side are 17/5 to win to nil. If you’re after Milan derby bets with big odds, Krzysztof Piatek – who has eight goals in nine appearances for the Rossoneri since joining in January – is 14/1 to bag the only goal of the game.